Indian Stock Markets: Murphy's law

If you have ever invested in the Indian stock markets and if you are not a honcho of the FIIs chances are you have experienced Murphy's law in action. It was in May 2006 that I developed an interest in the bourse, or shall I say I had some disposable cash I wanted to part with. Markets were making new highs everyday, fundamentals were strong, India was shining and then I took my first market position, bought Tata Steel 50 shares @ 556, and that was it, I triggered a fall in the stocks across the board, suddenly market was looking overheated, PE multiples were too high, metals lost their shine, sugar was no more sweet, cement failed to bond.

However, I was a long term investor so I was least worried, infact it was time for me to do some value shopping and averaging. My next pick was Hotel Leela 20 stocks @ 330, my rationale: Hotel rates were set to revise, Leela was aquiring land across India, Leela was opening new hotels, Leela was venturing out of India, and further "Sharekhan Puts a buy on Hotel leela, 6 months target 500". The very next day, Hotel industry started looking bad :).

Finance minister started marketing mutual funds and so I also took a SIP.

That was then, but now things have changed. Indian markets are more mature now. 15000 is the next target for sensex, fundamentals are sound, Warren Buffet is long on India. But suddenly comes a CRR hike, suddenly come inflation worries, suddenly comes MAT, suddenly comes excise duty on cement and PE multiples start looking expensive.

Makes me feel, the next job I would take is a stock market analyst. Oh I understand your obvious question would be, "but you don't seem to be understanding the markets well". Before answering I will share a stock tip I got from my broker, "12-Feb-2007: Short nifty march fut @ 4000", on 23rd Feb nifty was somewhere around 4200, but then came 1st March and nifty was below 4000, my stock broker sent me this message "Time to book profit in nifty short we recommended on 12th Feb". Now anyone can be a stock market expert, right?

Anyways, I will leave you now with innumerable opportunities that the markets offer. Happy investing.

Oh, before leaving let me take the first step towards my new career, here goes my first public stock market tip, "Take no tips, do your own study"